ObjectiveTo analyze the trend of disease burden of tracheal and bronchial lung cancer in China from 1990 to 2021 and predict its future changes. MethodsData was extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Database 2021 to analyze the disease burden of tracheal and bronchial lung cancer in China from 1990 to 2021. The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the temporal trends. The BAPC model was employed to predict the future disease burden of tracheal and bronchial lung cancer in China. ResultsIn 2021, the standardized incidence rate, standardized prevalence, standardized mortality rate, and standardized DALYs rate of tracheal and bronchial lung cancer in China were 44.01/100 000, 57.95/100 000, 38.98/100 000, and 878.25/100 000, all of which showed an upward trend compared to 1990, with the standardized prevalence increasing the fastest at 71.75%, followed by the standardized incidence rate, which increased by 32.93%. BAPC prediction results indicated that the standardized incidence and prevalence rates of tracheal and bronchial lung cancer in the Chinese population will show an upward trend, while the standardized mortality rate will show a downward trend, and the standardized DALYs rate will remain relatively stable from 2022 to 2035. The standardized incidence rate is expected to rise from 46.18/100 000 in 2022 to 50.32/100 000 in 2035, the standardized prevalence rate is expected to rise from 60.47/100 000 in 2022 to 73.49/100 000 in 2035, the standardized mortality rate is expected to decrease from 39.75/100 000 in 2022 to 36.53/100 000 in 2035, and the standardized DALYs rate is expected to rise from 903.25/100 000 in 2022 to 916.38/100 000 in 2035. ConclusionFrom 1990 to 2021, the disease burden of tracheal and bronchial lung cancer in China showed an upward trend. Although the disease burden among the elderly and males is more prominent, the rate of increase among females in the past decade has been rapid and shows a trend towards younger ages. Comprehensive prevention and control measures should be taken. It is predicted that the situation of tracheal and bronchial lung cancer incidence and prevalence in China will remain very serious from 2022 to 2035.
ObjectiveTo analyze the disease burden and temporal trends of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) attributable to air pollution in China from 1990 to 2021. MethodsUtilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021), we assessed the burden of COPD attributable to air pollution in China through metrics including death counts, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR), annual percentage change (APC), and average annual percentage change (AAPC). A Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model was employed to project future trends in COPD burden attributable to air pollution. ResultsIn 2021, China’s ASMR and ASDR for COPD attributable to air pollution were 32.57 and 533.84 per 100,000 population, respectively, exceeding global averages. From 1990 to 2021, both ASMR and ASDR exhibited significant declining trends, with AAPCs of −5.24% (95% CI −5.78% to −4.70%) and −5.28% (95% CI −5.75% to −4.81%), respectively. The burden intensified with advancing age and was disproportionately higher among males compared to females. BAPC projections indicate a continued decline in COPD burden from 2022 to 2035, with ASMR expected to decrease from 56.40 to 23.02 per 100,000 and ASDR from 900.14 to 408.64 per 100,000. Conclusion Despite sustained reductions in the burden of COPD attributable to air pollution in China from 1990 to 2021, with further declines anticipated through 2035, national rates remain elevated relative to global benchmarks. Male and elderly populations bear the highest burden, underscoring the urgency for targeted interventions to mitigate air pollution exposure and address health disparities in vulnerable demographics.