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find Author "LIANG Yao" 1 results
  • Disease burden and prediction of stroke attributable to metabolic risk factors in China, 1990-2021

    Objective To analyze the burden and trend of stroke attributable to metabolic risk factors in China from 1990 to 2021. Methods Data on deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributed to metabolic risk factors for stroke were analyzed based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database 2021 in China, globally, and across different socio-demographic index (SDI) regions from 1990 to 2021. Joinpoint regression analysis was utilized to calculate the average annual percent change (AAPC) to evaluate temporal trends in disease burden. Results In 2021, the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) of stroke attributable to metabolic risk factors in China were 93.57/100 000 and 1 793.16/100 000, respectively, both higher than global and all SDI regional averages. Among metabolic-related stroke subtypes, ischemic stroke accounted for the highest disease burden, whereas subarachnoid hemorrhage had the lowest. Disease burden was greater in men compared with women. Both stroke mortality and DALYs rate increased with advancing age, with DALYs rate slightly declined only after the age of 95 years. Elevated systolic blood pressure (SBP) was identified as the leading metabolic risk factors for stroke burden. Between 1990 and 2021, the ASMR (AAPC=−1.34) and ASDR (AAPC=−1.38) attributed to metabolic risk factors of stroke in China showed decreasing trends, consistent with global and regional SDI averages, with greater reductions observed in women. Declining trends were also observed across all stroke subtypes, only stroke burden associated with high body mass index (BMI) exhibited an increasing trend. By 2031, the ASMR and ASDR are projected to decrease to 77.37/100 000 and 1 478.88/100 000, respectively. Conclusion From 1990 to 2021, the burden of stroke attributable to metabolic risk factors in China showed an overall declining trend. However, the burden remained higher compared with global and regions SDI levels, particularly among men and older adults. Future efforts should focus on enhancing metabolic factors screening and management in high-risk populations, along with optimizing individualized interventions to further reduce stroke burden.

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