ObjectivesTo analyze the trend of incidence and mortality of bladder cancer from 1990 to 2017 and the effects of age, time period and birth cohort on bladder cancer incidence and mortality.MethodsData on age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized death rate (ASDR) of bladder cancer from 1990 to 2017 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease 2017 (GBD 2017) database. Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the average annual percentage change of ASIR and ASDR of bladder cancer. The age-period-cohort model was established to analyze the age, period and birth cohort effects on ASIR and ASDR of bladder cancer.ResultsFrom 1990 to 2017, both ASIR and ASDR of bladder cancer decreased slightly. ASIR decreased from 6.42 per 100 000 in 1990 to 6.04 per 100 000 in 2017, with an average annual percentage change of −0.9% (−1.0% to −0.8%), and ASDR decreased from 3.15 per 100 000 in 1990 to 2017 2.57/100 000, with an average annual percentage change of −0.4% (−0.4% to −0.3%). The age-period-cohort model results showed that as age increased, the risk of bladder cancer incidence and mortality increased; as the birth cohort progressed, the risk of bladder cancer morbidity and mortality decreased. The time period had little effect on the incidence and mortality of bladder cancer.ConclusionsThe incidence and mortality of bladder cancer are declining globally. On the other hand, the increase of the aging global population could reverse the incidence and mortality trend, active measures should be taken to address the adverse effects of aging.
Objective To investigate the incidence trend of migraine in Chinese from 1990 to 2019 in the global burden of disease database (GBD2019) and its effect on three factors: age, period and cohort. Methods Data were obtained from GBD2019. Joinpoint software was used to analyze the changes in migraine incidence. We analyzed the age-period-cohort (APC) model of migraine in the Chinese population with Stata 17.0 software and estimated the effect of age, period, and cohort on migraine incidence. Results From 1990 to 2019, the standardized incidence of migraine in the general population, and in men and women in China showed a fluctuating upwards trend, and the average annual percentage changes were 0.23%, 0.27% and 0.21%, respectively. The APC model showed that from 1990 to 2019, the risk of migraine in China decreased with the increase of age, showed a downward trend with the increase of the period, and increased with the increase of the birth cohort, indicating that the cohort effect played a dominant role in the risk of migraine in the current period, and the risk of women in the rear of the birth cohort began to be gradually higher than that of men. Conclusion The incidence of migraine in Chinese population is on the rise from 1990 to 2019, and the younger the age, the earlier the period, and the lower the birth cohort, the greater the risk of migraine, suggesting that the prevention and treatment of migraine in women aged 10 to 54 years should be strengthened to further reduce the incidence of migraine in China.
ObjectiveTo analyze the incidence and mortality trends of falls among elderly in China from 1990 to 2019, and to evaluate the impact of age, period, and cohort on their long-term trends. MethodsThe joinpoint regression model and age-period-cohort model were used to analysis. The annual percent change (APC) and the average annual percent change (AAPC) were used to analyze the incidence and mortality of falls among elderly in China from 1990 to 2019. The influence of age, period and cohort on the incidence and mortality of falls were analyzed. ResultsThe standardized incidence and mortality rates of falls among the elderly in China showed fluctuating upward trends from 1990 to 2019 (AAPC=1.929%, 1.535%, P<0.001), The increase rate of falls incidence was higher in men than that in women (AAPC=1.928%, 1.923%, P<0.001), and the increase rate of falls mortality was lower in men than that in women (AAPC=1.407%, 1.562%, P<0.001). The results of the age-period-cohort model showed that the age effect and period effect coefficients of incidence and mortality of falls in Chinese elderly men and women showed an overall fluctuating upward trend, while the cohort effect coefficients showed an overall downward trend. ConclusionFrom 1990 to 2019, the age standardized incidence and mortality rate of falls among the elderly in China show fluctuating upward trends. The incidence of falls in elderly women is higher than that in men, and the mortality rate of falls in elderly men is higher than that in women. It is recommended to strengthen the prevention work for falls in the oldest old, the incidence of falls in elderly women, and the mortality of falls in elderly men.
ObjectiveThis study aims to analyze the trends in Parkinson’s disease incidence rates among the elderly population in China from 1990 to 2021 and to forecast incidence growth over the next 20 years, providing. MethodsJoinpoint regression and age-period-cohort models were employed to analyze temporal trends in Parkinson’s disease incidence, and the Nordpred model was used to predict case numbers and incidence rates among the elderly in China from 2022 to 2044. ResultsFindings indicated a significant increase in Parkinson’s disease incidence among China’s elderly population from 1990 to 2021, with crude and age-standardized incidence rates rising from 95.37 per 100 000 and 111.05 per 100 000 to 170.52 per 100 000 and 183.91 per 100 000, respectively. Predictions suggested that by 2044, the number of cases will rise to approximately 878 264, with the age-standardized incidence rate reaching 223.4 per 100 000, and men showing significantly higher incidence rates than women. The rapid increase in both cases and incidence rates indicated that Parkinson’s disease will continue to impose a heavy disease burden on China’s elderly population. ConclusionThe burden of Parkinson’s disease in China’s elderly population has grown significantly and is expected to worsen. To address the rising incidence rates effectively, it is recommended to enhance early screening and health education for high-risk groups, improve diagnostic and treatment protocols, and prioritize resource allocation to Parkinson’s disease prevention and care services to reduce future public health burdens.
Objective To analyze the epidemic trend of prostate cancer in China from 1992 to 2021, and predict its epidemic trends from 2022 to 2032. Methods Based on the data of Chinese population and prostate cancer incidence and mortality from Global Burden of Disease Database, the Joinpoint log-linear model was used to analyze the trends of prostate cancer incidence and mortality, use the age-period-cohort model to analyze the effects of age, period and cohort on changes in incidence and mortality, and the gray prediction model was used to predict the trends of prostate cancer. Results From 1992 to 2021, the incidence and mortality of prostate cancer in China showed an upward trend, with AAPC of 5.652% (P<0.001) and 3.466% (P<0.001), and the AAPC of age-standardized incidence decreased to 1.990% (P<0.001), the age-standardized mortality showed a downward trend and was not statistically significant. The results of the age-period-cohort model showed that the net drift values of prostate cancer incidence and mortality were 3.03% and −1.06%, respectively, and the risk of incidence and mortality gradually increased with age and period. The results of the grey prediction model showed that the incidence and mortality of prostate cancer showed an upward trend from 2022 to 2032, and the incidence trend was more obvious. Conclusion The incidence and mortality of prostate cancer in China showed an increasing trend, with a heavy disease burden and severe forms of prevention and control, so it is necessary to do a good job in monitoring the incidence and mortality of prostate cancer, and strengthen the efficient screening, early diagnosis and treatment of prostate cancer.
ObjectiveTo understand the burden of stroke disease and age-period-cohort effects in China from 1990 to 2021, and to provide scientific basis for formulating relevant prevention and treatment strategies. MethodsBased on GBD 2021 data, the Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the trend of incidence rate, mortality and DALYs rate of stroke, and the APC model was used to analyze the impact of age, period and birth cohort on the incidence and mortality of stroke. ResultsFrom 1990 to 2021, the standardized incidence rate, standardized mortality rate and standardized DALYs rate of stroke in China showed an overall downward trend, with AAPC of −0.37% (95%CI −0.45% to −0.29%), −1.79% (95%CI −1.99% to −1.59%), and −1.93% (95%CI −2.07% to −1.80%), respectively. The results of the age-period-cohort model showed that the incidence and mortality risks of stroke increased with age. The risk of female onset remained stable in the early stage but increased rapidly in the later stage, while the risk of male mortality showed a slight upward trend. The risk of onset and death generally decreased with the passage of the birth cohort. Hypertension had always been the primary risk factor for stroke, and metabolic factors such as high blood sugar had become the main factors affecting disease burden. ConclusionThe burden of stroke disease in China is still relatively heavy, and differentiated intervention measures should be developed for different age and gender groups based on controllable risk factors, especially focusing on the elderly and male population.
ObjectiveTo analyze the changing trends in disease burden of femoral fractures in China from 1990 to 2021, evaluate the impacts of age, period, and cohort effects, and project the age-standardized prevalence rate and age-standardized incidence rates of femoral fractures from 2022 to 2036. MethodsUtilizing open data from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, this research characterized the disease burden of femoral fractures in China between 1990 and 2021, including trends in incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs). Age-standardized rates were calculated, and Joinpoint regression models were employed to estimate annual percentage changes (APC) and average annual percentage changes (AAPC). An age-period-cohort (APC) model was applied to quantify the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on disease burden. A Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was further utilized to project age-standardized prevalence rates and age-standardized incidence rates from 2022 to 2036, with stratified analyses by age, sex, and time period. ResultsFrom 1990 to 2021, age-standardized prevalence (AAPC=0.138 5%), incidence (AAPC=0.294 2%), and YLD rates (AAPC=0.128 3%) exhibited sustained upward trends. Unintentional injuries constituted the predominant etiology of femoral fractures, followed by transport accidents and interpersonal violence/self-harm. In 2021, disease burden escalated with advancing age, with females over 60 years demonstrating significantly higher burdens than males. Age effect coefficients showed a monotonic increase, period effects displayed a U-shaped trajectory (decline followed by rebound), and cohort effects exhibited an inverted U-shaped pattern (rise then decline). Projections indicated continued growth in age-standardized prevalence rates and age-standardized incidence rates through 2036. ConclusionAs the population aging intensifies in China, the disease burden of femoral fractures in our country remains extremely severe. Among them, the elderly female group has become the key focus for prevention and control due to the high prevalence of osteoporosis.